2010 Great West Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/08/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The inaugural Great West Conference Tournament takes place at the McKay Center in Orem, Utah from March 10-13. The champion of this event receives an automatic bid to the Collegeinsider.com Tournament, as the league won't be eligible for an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament until 2020.

Earning the top seed by virtue of its 11-1 league record are the South Dakota Coyotes, who finished a stellar 20-9 on the year and come into this event riding an 11-game win streak. USD has won at least 20 games in each of the past seven seasons. The Coyotes, who rank at the top of the GWC in scoring offense (79.2 ppg), scoring margin (+6.8), field goal percentage (.478) and field goal percentage defense (.408), won't see their first action in the tournament until the semifinals on Friday. South Dakota has three double-digit scorers in the form of Tyler Cain (15.1 ppg), Roman Gentry (13.6 ppg) and Jake Thomas (12.6 ppg). Cain has been a monster this season, as he leads the conference in field goal percentage (.665), rebounding (10.2 rpg) and blocked shots (84).

Houston Baptist went 9-3 in conference during the regular season to claim the second seed in the tourney, but the Huskies won only one other game all year to finish a dismal 10-20. HBU, which has won four of its last five coming into this event, boasts the top scorer in the league in Andrew Gonzalez (18.8 ppg), and the team is averaging 70.2 ppg to rank second in the Great West. Unfortunately, the Huskies give up a league-worst 79.1 ppg and they also rank last in turnover margin (-3.40).

The No. 3 seed went to North Dakota after it went 5-7 in conference to match the record achieved by fourth-seeded Utah Valley, but the Fighting Sioux won the tie-breaker by beating the Wolverines twice during the regular season. UND closed out the 2009-10 campaign by losing two in a row, but the team has won four of its last seven games overall. Only two players are averaging double figures in the scoring column, as Travis Bledsoe (14.8 ppg, league-leading .441 three-point FG percentage) and Travis Mertens (10.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) help the Fighting Sioux put up 62.0 ppg, which helps explain the club's dreadful 8-22 record.

As mentioned, Utah Valley finished two games under .500 in league play, and the team won just 12 of its 29 games on the year. The Wolverines, who are the host team of this event, have dropped five of their last six games coming into the postseason, with their lone win being a 65-57 decision against visiting NJIT on March 4th. UVU is the top defensive team in the Great West, yielding just 65.4 ppg -- a shade more than it produces (63.9 ppg). Jordan Swarbrick leads the team at the offensive end with his modest 12.7 ppg.

The No. 5 seed was awarded to UT-Pan American, which went just 5-26 on the year and 4-8 in conference. The Broncs have tasted victory just twice in their last 12 games, the most recent of which came in the regular-season finale at North Dakota on Saturday. UTPA doesn't have one double-digit scorer in the fold, and is averaging a league-worst 61.0 ppg as a result. Defensively, the Broncs are giving up 72.7 to rank sixth in the Great West. Foes have found it relatively easy to hit their shots, doing so 48.7 percent of the time, while also having their way on the glass (-7.7 rebounding margin) -- both of which have the team ranked last in the conference.

NJIT picked up the sixth seed after going 4-8 in league play this season, matching the conference records of both Chicago State and UTPA. The Highlanders, who went just 1-59 the previous two seasons, limp into this event having lost three straight and five of their last six overall, the most recent setback coming in an 83-49 shellacking at regular-season champ South Dakota on Sunday. Despite averaging just 61.1 ppg (sixth-worst in the Great West), the team features three double-digit scorers in the form of Jheryl Wilson (14.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Chris Flores (13.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Isaiah Wilkerson (12.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg). NJIT is shooting a league-worst 37.8 percent from the field, but at 66.9 ppg allowed, the Highlanders rank second in scoring defense.

Chicago State is the No. 7 seed, earning that distinction after going a mere 9-22 on the year and as mentioned, winning just four of its 12 league bouts. The Cougars have just two players averaging double digits in the scoring column, with Carl Montgomery (13.3 ppg) and Christian Wall (12.8 ppg) doing what they can to help the team achieve its goals. Unfortunately, CSU is putting up just 62.4 ppg to rank fifth in the conference, and the team sits sixth in field goal percentage (.381), which includes a league-worst 26.9 percent showing from three-point range. The one area the Cougars have excelled in this year is on the glass, as they lead the GWC in rebounding margin (+1.3).

Utah Valley takes on UT-Pan American in the first game of the event, and the teams split a pair of meetings during the regular season, with each winning at home. The winner will move on to face top-seeded South Dakota in the semifinals on Friday.

Houston Baptist will battle Chicago State in the quarterfinals, and the Huskies won both regular-season matchups with the Cougars, the last being an 85-83 overtime affair in early February.

North Dakota and NJIT lock horns in the third game of the quarters, and the teams split their two games during the regular season with the home team winning each time.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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