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09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their postseason fate hanging by a thread, the LA Angels of Anaheim look to stop a four-game home losing streak tonight in the second portion of a three-game series versus the Cleveland Indians.
The Angels are 9 1/2 games behind Texas for the American League West lead, but 14 losses over the last 20 games have put a damper on their playoff hopes. In Monday's 3-2 loss in the series opener, Dan Haren allowed two runs in seven innings for the no-decision, while Fernando Rodney was dealt the loss for surrendering Shin-Soo Choo's RBI single in the top of the ninth.
"Other than the three uncharacteristic walks in the sixth, [Haren] pitched well," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "We just didn't support him."
Haren had control issues in the sixth, walking three straight after Jayson Nix's two-out double. Torii Hunter homered and Alberto Callaspo drove in a run for Anaheim, which got two hits from Hunter and Mike Napoli in defeat.
Anaheim will hand the ball to Trevor Bell this evening and he's 2-4 with a 4.85 earned run average in 24 games (6 starts) this season. Bell is coming off last Wednesday's win at Seattle and limited the hosts to two runs on nine hits through six innings.
Bell also struck out six Mariners and will face Cleveland for the second time in his career Tuesday. The right-hander defeated the Indians back on August 18 of last season, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 frames of a 5-4 win.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has alternated wins and losses over its previous six games and got back into the victory column thanks to Choo's run-scoring single in the ninth inning. Choo is batting .429 in his career at the Big A.
Shelley Duncan and Luis Valbuena were each credited with an RBI for the Indians, who got six strong innings out of young starter Carlos Carrasco. The righty held the Angels to two runs in six innings.
"I felt I had command of my fastball. I was throwing strikes," Carrasco said. "I wanted to stay in the game, but I threw too many pitches."
Jensen Lewis earned the win by getting the final out in the eighth inning and Chris Perez recorded his 19th save in the ninth.
Justin Masterson will handle pitching duties for the Tribe Tuesday, and he's only 5-12 with a 5.04 earned run average in 27 starts this season. Masterson did not record a decision the last time out in a 4-3 loss to the White Sox on August 31, despite getting reached for only one run in 7 2/3 innings.
The righty, who is just 2-7 in 14 road starts this season, will make his seventh career appearance against the Halos. In six lifetime matchups, three of which have been starts, Masterson is 1-0 with a 3.13 ERA.
The Angels took two of three at home over the Indians back in April and have won six of the last nine overall meetings.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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